Pre-market brief — 2026-08-17

Top overnight headlines

Tech leads risk-on tone as strong Anthropic revenue growth reinforces the AI capex thesis; Sandisk and Micron rally pre-market (Bloomberg).
Dollar hits a three-month low as traders price ~30% odds of a September Fed hike after soft July retail sales (-0.6%) and August UMich sentiment (51 vs 55.2) (FXStreet).
Brent hangs near $89–90 as the interim US–Iran ceasefire expires today; Strait of Hormuz reopening talks remain deadlocked (Trading Economics).
Big-box retail earnings on deck this week — WMT, TGT, HD, LOW — a key read on back-to-school consumer health (Yahoo Finance).
China July activity data landed with focus on industrial output (est. +4.8%) and retail sales (est. +1.5%) (Rio Times).

S&P 500 (ES) +0.13% at 7,815.25; Nasdaq-100 (NQ) +0.52% at 30,299.75; Dow (YM) -0.17%; Russell 2000 -0.13% (Yahoo Finance).
Asia: Nikkei +0.83%, Shanghai CSI 300 +0.58%, Hang Seng -0.83% (Rio Times).
Europe: DAX -0.23%, FTSE -0.10%, CAC -0.46%, Stoxx 600 -0.16% (Rio Times).
VIX 14.91 (+4.6% Fri) after a third straight weekly gain for the S&P (Yahoo Finance).

US 10Y: 4.69%, -1 bp after +5 bp Friday (Trading Economics).
DXY 99.43 (-0.2%), three-month low; EUR/USD ~1.1600 (two-month high); USD/JPY ~159.00; GBP/USD ~1.3550 (FXStreet).
Brent ~$89/bbl (Yahoo Finance cites $89; Rio Times $88.50; earlier fix $91.53) — up ~6% last week on Iran risk premium (DNYUZ, Rio Times).
Gold sub-$4,350/oz as profit-taking continues into Fed uncertainty (Trading Economics gold).
Copper $6.60/lb (+4.9% MoM, +47.6% YoY) (Trading Economics copper).

08:30 ET — NY Empire State Manufacturing Index (Aug), est. 10.2 vs prior 15.6 (Markets Today via X).
10:00 ET — NAHB Housing Market Index (Aug), est. 35.0 vs prior 34.0 (Markets Today via X).
Overnight: China industrial production and retail sales (July) (Rio Times).
No Fed speakers/Treasury auctions of note; July FOMC minutes Wed release is the week's set-piece (Kiplinger).

Retail bellwethers all week — HD Tue, TGT/LOW Wed, WMT Thu. Guidance on back-to-school + tariff pass-through matters more than the print; XRT and consumer discretionary tone will hinge on it (Yahoo Finance).
Iran ceasefire expiry today — headline risk into the close; a break higher in Brent through $92 revives the stagflation trade and puts pressure on the long end (Trading Economics).
Dollar breakdown vs. Nasdaq leadership — DXY at three-month lows plus soft data pushed Sep hike odds to ~30%; watch for a rotation extension into duration-sensitive tech and gold miners if 4.65% on the 10Y breaks (FXStreet).