Post-close recap — 2026-08-12

How the day closed

• S&P 500 7,748.50, +0.26% — a fresh push higher after July CPI matched expectations at 3.4% YoY.
• Nasdaq 26,588.49, +0.54% — AI-infrastructure earnings did the heavy lifting.
• Dow 53,770.27, -0.04% — flat as staples/software drag offset industrial strength.
• Russell 2000 3,045.48, +0.61% — small caps outperformed on the softer inflation read (Yahoo Finance).

Tape narrative: an in-line July CPI print gave the Warsh Fed room to stay on hold in September, and blowout AI-capex prints from CoreWeave and Super Micro pulled the semis/neocloud complex higher.

Sectors & breadth

• Winners: Tech/semis led, boosted by AI infra names — CoreWeave +~20%, Super Micro +~15%, Nebius +16.5% (CNBC). Industrials firm (CAT +1.8%), select mega-cap chips higher (NVDA +1.7%).
• Laggards: Enterprise software rotated out — Workday -4%, MSFT -1.0%, IBM -1.0%. Staples soft with MCD -1.1%.
• Breadth: Small-cap outperformance and Russell +0.6% point to broad participation despite the flat Dow (TheStreet).

Rates, FX, commodities, vol

• UST 10Y: ~4.68%, essentially unchanged post-CPI (CNBC).
• UST 2Y: ~4.25% area, modest richening on lower hike odds.
• DXY: 99.83, flat — greenback shrugged off the print (Trading Economics).
• USD/JPY: 159.34, little changed.
• WTI crude: ~$90/bbl, bid on Strait of Hormuz risk premium (Rio Times).
• Gold: ~$4,400/oz, recouping Tuesday's dip (Rio Times).
• Copper: $6.66/lb, +0.74% (Trading Economics).
• VIX: 15.28, -1.2% — complacency deepens (Rio Times).

Drivers & headlines

• July CPI in line at +0.1% m/m, 3.4% y/y; core +0.2% m/m, 2.5% y/y — the softer core reading is the story, trimming September hike probability to ~42% and giving the Fed breathing room (CNBC).
• AI capex re-rating: CoreWeave Q2 revenue $2.58B (+112% y/y) and Super Micro's $65–72B FY27 revenue guide reignited the neocloud/AI-server trade (Benzinga).
• Cisco constructive into the after-hours print — the stock closed +2–3% ahead of results (Yahoo Finance).
• Hormuz risk premium kept crude bid near $90, feeding the "inflation-sticky-but-cooling" narrative (Rio Times).
• Software rotation: Workday and other enterprise SaaS names sold as capital rotated toward AI-infrastructure beneficiaries.

After-hours

• CoreWeave (CRWV) extended gains, +~18% after hours on the Q2 beat and raised guide.
• Super Micro (SMCI) +~9% after hours on the FY27 revenue outlook.
• Cisco (CSCO) reported after the bell — shares held onto regular-session gains as investors digested guidance.
• Broader AI-infra complex (IREN, Nebius) traded higher in extended hours on read-throughs.

Setup for tomorrow

• July PPI at 8:30am ET — consensus +0.2% m/m; a hotter print would revive the "sticky-inflation" trade and pressure duration (Kraken).
• Weekly jobless claims alongside PPI — watch for any labor-market cracks that would strengthen the doves' hand.
• Digestion of Cisco / AI-infra prints — if the neocloud rally holds through Thursday, expect further chase into semis and datacenter names; a fade would suggest the CPI-driven bid was the whole story.

Sources

• CNBC — July CPI report
• CNBC — Tepid CPI gives Fed breathing room
• CNBC — Treasury yields, CPI day
• Yahoo Finance — Aug 12 live blog
• TheStreet — Aug 12 market wrap
• Rio Times — Global economy briefing
• Rio Times — Gold/silver Aug 12
• Rio Times — Copper Aug 11
• Trading Economics — Copper
• Trading Economics — DXY
• Benzinga — IREN on AI-infra sentiment
• Kraken — PPI/CPI two-week window
• BLS — CPI release