Post-close recap — 2026-07-31

How the day closed

• S&P 500 +0.7% to 7,489.72 — a record close capping a volatile July
• Nasdaq Composite +1.0% to 25,373.85
• Dow Jones Industrial Average +0.53% (+277 pts) to 52,485.03 — fourth straight winning month

Stocks staged an afternoon rally to close out July on an upbeat note as Big Tech earnings revived the AI trade, offsetting a spike in long-end Treasury yields and a fresh leg higher in oil that rekindled inflation concerns (Yahoo Finance, CDA Press/AP).

Sectors & breadth

• Winners: Communication Services and Consumer Discretionary led, dragged higher by Amazon (+12%) and Alphabet (+6%); Tech held up despite the Apple drag
• Losers: Energy underperformed on ExxonMobil's -3% print; Health Care lagged as Eli Lilly fell ~3%; Utilities weak on the rate move
• Breadth: Positive but uneven — the tape leaned on mega-cap earnings rather than broad participation, with rate-sensitive corners of the market pressured by the long-end move (IG)

Rates, FX, commodities, vol

• 10Y UST: ~4.70%, highest since January 2025; 30Y at post-2007 highs on supply/inflation angst (TheStreet)
• 2Y UST: held in the low-4% area as the curve steepened bear-ishly
• DXY: hovering near 100.1, choppy around a pivotal support zone (TradingEconomics, FOREX.com)
• WTI/Brent: Brent ~$92.27/bbl, extending gains and stoking inflation worries (Fortune)
• Gold: $4,086/oz, -0.4% (TradingEconomics)
• Copper: futures pushed above $6.45/lb, +~2% on the week (TradingEconomics)
• VIX: ~17.1, well contained given the rates move (Historical Option Data)

Drivers & headlines

• Amazon blows out AWS — Q2 revenue $200.6B (+19.6% y/y), AWS $42.2B with a 39.4% operating margin. Shares +12–13%, single-handedly rescuing the tape after a shaky open (24/7 Wall St., CNBC)
• Apple guides light on chip crunch — Record fiscal Q3 ($109.4B revenue), but FQ4 guide of 9–11% growth undershot the 12% consensus; management cited advanced-chip and memory supply constraints. Stock -8% (24/7 Wall St.)
• Long-end rates repricing — 30Y at 2007 highs, 10Y through 4.7%, on sticky-inflation angst and duration supply pressure. Alphabet, Microsoft and Amazon together added ~$1.5T of market cap this week even as bonds sold off (CNBC)
• Oil resurgence — Brent north of $92 added a new headache to the inflation narrative into the August jobs print (AP/CDA Press)
• Fed policy backdrop — Wednesday's FOMC (no dot plot) and Thursday's June PCE (core +0.1% m/m) left markets debating whether AI-capex-fueled growth plus firmer energy delays the next cut. Ongoing chatter around BEA methodology tweaks under Chair Warsh adds noise to the inflation read (Kraken Blog, Forbes)

After-hours

• Light headlines after the bell — the marquee prints landed Thursday night. Notable small-cap after-hours movers included Addentax (ATXG) +15.5% and Stardust Power (SDST) +10% (Benzinga)
• Focus for weekend headlines: OPEC+ commentary on the crude rally and any follow-through Fed speak after the July 29 decision

Setup for tomorrow (week ahead)

• Jobs week — July NFP lands Friday, Aug 7, at 8:30am ET. June printed a soft +57K, so a further miss would revive rate-cut pricing; a hot number would compound the long-end sell-off (Kiplinger, FinanceCalendar)
• Earnings pivot to cyclicals — With Mag-7 largely done, watch industrials/energy for confirmation of the "AI capex bleeding into the real economy" narrative
• Rates the pain trade — If 30Y stays above 2007 pivots into next week's auctions, equity multiples (particularly non-AI-tied cyclicals) come under pressure

Sources: - Yahoo Finance — Stock market today, July 31 2026 - TheStreet — Dow edges higher as bond yields surge, Apple slides - CNBC — Alphabet, Amazon, Microsoft added nearly $1.5T this week - AP via CDA Press — US stocks finish a wild July - 24/7 Wall St. — Apple sinks 8%, Amazon soars 12% - 24/7 Wall St. — Apple and Amazon both crush earnings - IG — S&P 500 sector rotation broadens as mega-caps shed $658bn - TradingEconomics — Gold - TradingEconomics — Copper - TradingEconomics — USD/DXY - Fortune — Current price of oil, July 31 2026 - FOREX.com — DXY breakout failure threatens uptrend - Historical Option Data — Market Analysis 07/31/2026 - Kraken Blog — Fed decision headlines two weeks of data - Forbes — Shifting inflation metrics and the Fed's path - Benzinga — Industrials moving in Friday's after-market - Kiplinger — Economic data week of Aug 3–7 - FinanceCalendar — July 2026 NFP release